汉译英,A股股灾反思录之结束篇:为了解救而消灭,盐水虾的做法

频道:新闻世界 日期: 浏览:286

股灾和救市的喧嚣与争议根本都已曩昔,我国的股市在从头康复其生机。咱们信任,我国证券商场就好像这个民族,阅历再多灾祸,最终都只会让它愈加健壮——但条件是咱们有必要对从前的弯路与曲折做必要的反思和总结,这也是格隆汇安排A股股灾反思录系列的原因。今天是这个系列的最终一篇文章,来自一个海外会员作者—美国Zerohedge(零对冲)的泰勒德顿的文章——高盛公司的闪电买卖这个非合理盈余商业行为便是泰勒德顿第一个揭穿的。当然,海外作者看待我国的方法必定与国内不同,乃至有些过火,有一些咱们看来清楚明了不那么正确的观念。但,兼听则明。好在我国已满意强壮,咱们有满意的实力和胸襟来听听各方面的定见——不因狭窄、片面而遮盖双眼,咱们才干更自傲和沉着地面临这个世界。

During the Vietnam War, surveying the shelled wreckage of Ben Tre, an American officer famously remarked, “It became necessary to destroy the town to save it.” His comment came to epitomize the sort of self-defeating “victory” that undoes what it aims to achieve.

在越南战役期间,在调查被炮火轰炸后的槟椥市(越南一城市)时, 一个美国官员站在废墟残骸之上留下了一句名言:“这是为了解救它而不得不消灭它”。他的话归纳了这种自我消灭式的“成功”——它倾覆了其原本的意图。

Last month, China destroyed its stock market in order to save it. Faced with a crash in share prices from a bubble of its own making, the Chinese government intervened ruthlessly, and recklessly, to turn those prices around. Its heavy-handed approach seemed to work, for the moment, but only by severely damaging far more important goals and ambitions.

上个月,我国为了解救其股票商场而先将其消灭。面临自己制作的泡沫引起的股市暴降,政府为了使股价回转,无情并鲁莽地进行干与。这种“重手反击”好像暂时起效了,但这是经过严重破坏愈加重要的方针和前景而完成的。

Prior to the crash, China’s stock market had enjoyed a blissful disconnect from reality. As China’s economy slowed and corporate profits declined, share prices soared, nearly tripling in just 12 months. By the peak, half the companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges were priced above a preposterous 85-times earnings. It was a clear warning flag one that Chinese regulators encouraged people to ignore. Then reality caught up.

在这次股灾之前,我国股市享受了一段脱离实际的夸姣时期。跟着我国经济增加减速和企业赢利下降,在十二个月内股价却飙升了近三倍。在极点时,沪深两市对折上市公司的PE荒唐地超过了85倍。这是一个十分显着的正告信号,而监管部门却鼓舞人们去忽视它。然后实际来了,梦醒了。

At first, when prices began to fall, the central bank responded by cutting interest rates and bank reserve requirements — measures to inject more money that had never failed to juice the market. But prices continued to fall. Then the government rallied the major brokerages to form a $19 billion fund to buy shares and waded directly into the market to buy stocks too. A few stocks rose, but most fell even further.

最开端,当股价开端下降时,央行采取了降息降准的办法促进资金注入,这一办法曾经每一次都能提振商场。但股价依然跌落。所以政府集结了首要的证券公司,成立了一只190亿美元的基金直接入市购买股票。少量股价上涨了,但大部分仍是持续跌落。

The relentless crash was intensified by a new factor in Chinese markets: margin lending. Chinese punters were borrowing in large sums, from both brokerages and more shadowy sources like umbrella trusts and peer-to-peer lending websites to buy shares, with the shares themselves as collateral. At the peak, according to Goldman Sachs, formal margin lending alone accounted for 12 percent of the market float and 3.5 percent of Chinas GDP, easily the highest in the history of global equity markets. Margin loans served as rocket fuel for the market on its way up, but prices began to fall and borrowers received margin calls that forced them to liquidate their positions, pushing prices down further in a kind of death spiral.

这次无情的股灾被我国股市的一个新的要素强化了:融资杠杆。我国股民把股票作为典当品,从证券公司和某些场外来历——比方“伞形信任”和P2P网站——许多借钱购买股票。依据高盛的数据,在最高峰时,单单官方融资就占商场流通量的12%、我国GDP的3.5%,“容易就成为了世界股票商场历史上的最高值”。融资杠杆在商场火箭般上升的途中充当着助推剂的人物,但当股价开端下降,借款人纷繁接到最终通牒:补交保证金、或强行平仓。这进一步镇压了股价,构成死循环。

Chinese regulators, who had been trying (ineffectually) to rein in risky margin lending, now suddenly reversed course. They waved rules requiring brokerages to ask for more collateral when stock prices fall and allowed them to accept any kind of asset including peoples homes as collateral for stock-buying loans. They also encouraged brokerages to securitize and sell their margin-lending portfolios to the public so that they could go out and make even more loans. All these steps knowingly exposed major financial institutions, and their customers, to much greater risk. Yet no one will borrow if no one is confident enough to buy, and the market continued to fall, wiping out nearly all its gains since the start of the year.

我国的管理层——他们曾企图操控危险的融资杠杆(但未见效)——现在忽然转变了情绪。他们放宽了券商在股价跌落时要求更多典当品的规矩,并答应他们承受任何财物作为融资典当——包含人们的房产。他们也鼓舞券商进行财物证券化,将其融资借款打包出售给大众以便套现并发放更多融资借款。所有这些办法有意地将首要金融机构和他们的客户暴露在更高的危险之中。但假如没有人有满意决心买入就没有人会融资,大盘持续跌落,简直抹去了从年头以来的悉数收益。

By this point last week, Chinas state media was talking openly of a war on stocks. And in that war, Chinas leaders chose to employ the nuclear option: In effect, they closed down the market and outlawed selling. As of the morning of July 10, about half of Chinas 2,800 listed companies filed to suspend trading. Many of their owners had pledged shares as collateral for corporate and personal loans and were facing margin calls that would cause them to lose control of their companies. Chinese regulators also banned major shareholders from selling any shares for the next six months. Additionally, they directed companies to start buying back their own shares and instructed state-run banks to provide whatever financing was needed.

上星期的这个时点,我国官方媒体揭露议论了“股市保卫战”这个论题。在这场战役中,领导人挑选运用“核武器”:他们事实上封闭了商场、制止卖出。在7月10日早上,我国2800家上市公司的近一半都停牌了。这些公司的许多股东都已将其股权质押,面临着被强平并失掉公司操控权的或许。我国的管理层也制止了首要股东在未来6个月中减持任何股份。别的,他们引导上市公司回购自家股份,并辅导公营银行满意相关的融资需求。

But the real turn in the market came when China’s Ministry of Public Security — the no-nonsense tough guys normally tasked with cracking down on political dissent announced that it would arrest what it called malicious short-sellers. It was clear, however, that this meant anyone whose selling (not just short selling) interfered with the governments efforts to boost prices. The announcement cast a chill over the market. I have heard multiple reports of Chinese brokers refusing to accept sell orders for fear of angering the authorities. So when we say China’s stock market stabilized, we need to put quotation marks around the word “market.”

但真实的商场回转降临于我国公安部——这些正襟危坐的硬汉的使命通常是——宣告它将会拘捕所谓“歹意”做空者。但是,这很显着地指的是任何卖出(不只是卖空)股票、搅扰推涨股价的人。这一声明让商场敏捷冷却。我听到各种陈述都说我国的券商回绝承受卖单,惧怕惹怒当局。所以当咱们说我国股票商场安稳了,咱们需求给“商场”这个词打上引号。

Two years ago, China’s leaders adopted “market forces will be decisive” as the guiding principle behind a much-lauded push for reforms needed to reinvigorate China’s slowing economy. That principle now lies in ashes.

两年前,我国的领导人将“商场力气起决定性效果”作为辅导准则,进行广受赞扬的、重振正在放缓的我国经济的变革。现在这一准则(形似)被丢进了垃圾堆。

For years, China has dreamed of Shanghai’s becoming a global financial center. Now, one analyst at the global investment firm Julius Baer told the Financial Times, “confidence in the local Chinese equity market has been shattered and is unlikely to come back anytime soon.” Just a few weeks ago, observers confidently predicted it was “inevitable” that domestic Chinese stocks would soon be added to the major global indices that serve as benchmarks for professional investors. Today, with a mere rump of China’s stock market trading at all, and with investors afraid they will be thrown in prison for selling at the wrong time for the “wrong” price, it’s inconceivable.

多年以来,我国一向愿望着上海能成为世界金融中心。但最近,一位世界投资公司的分析师Julius Baer通知金融时报:“我国股票商场的自傲心已被打碎,并且不大或许在短期内康复。”仅在几周前,观察者们还自傲地猜测我国A股被参加首要的基准世界股票指数是 “不行避免的”。而现在,因为我国股市的残损,投资者们也惊骇他们会因为在过错的时刻以“过错的”价格卖出而进监狱,这个猜测已变得无法幻想。

It didn’t have to be this way. Some compare China’s intervention to the U.S. Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), but the difference is striking. TARP didn’t try to stop market prices from falling; it focused on containing the damage. If Chinese authorities identified a large securities firm that was at risk of failing from bad margin loans and stepped in to prevent a chain reaction, that would make more sense — and do a lot less damage — than trying to prop up the entire stock market by fair means and foul. Memories are short, but in 2007, China allowed an equally large stock bubble to collapse without its economy suffering irreparable harm. Caixin, one of China’s most prominent financial magazines, argued recently that this time around, the government “had no reason to intervene” to prevent a much-needed market correction and had grossly overreacted.

工作原本不用如此。有些人将我国的干涉股市与美国的TARP(问题财物救助方案)比照,但其差异是明显的。TARP没有企图安排商场价格跌落;它专心于使丢失可控。比较于想尽办法推高整个商场,假如我国当局致力于发现大型券商因为融资坏账或许关闭的危险,然后去介入阻挠连锁反响,这会愈加合理,形成的丢失也更小。回忆是时间短的,但在2007年,我国答应了相同巨细的股市泡沫决裂,而没有使经济遭受不行批改的冲击。作为我国最出色的财经杂志之一,财新最近表明这一次政府严重地过度反响了,“没有理由介入”去阻挠十分必要的商场批改。

China needs a functioning stock market that allocates investors’ capital to the most promising enterprises. This means prices that aren’t obedient to the whims of the state, or the party. China may have arrested the stock market’s fall by threatening to arrest sellers. But when it did that, it destroyed the town it was trying to save.

我国需求一个正常工作的股票商场,这个商场可以将投资者的本钱分配给最有出路的企业。这意味着价格不该遵照于国家或政党的一时鼓起。我国或许现已经过要挟拘捕卖方而“拘捕”了股市的跌落,但当它这么做时,它就摧毁了它企图解救的那座“城市”。

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